Mid-Cycle Checkup

The MVRV ratio for Bitcoin sits at 1.9, down from its recent 2.65 peak – neither in bargain-basement territory (ratio ~1) nor overheated (>3.5).

Author

CoinSnacks
March 19, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

Good Morning. All eyes are on the Fed rate decision today and comments from J Pow. Investors expect to keep interest rates on hold, and pencil in one or two cuts for this year.

5. XRP Jumps as Ripple CEO Says SEC 'Case Has Ended'

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse took to X today to say that his company's legal battle with the SEC has ended. $XRP.X ( ▲ 0.08% ) jumped more than 10% on the news.

4. Perpetual Strife

Michael Saylor’s Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 2.91% ) wants to add to its 500k BTC holdings but this time through a new, fancy, offering. Here’s how it works: Strategy will offer 5 million shares of preferred stock with no end date that pays a 10% dividend. Where might a company that pledges to never sell it’s BTC, and that has less than $40 million in cash on its balance sheet get the money to pay said dividend? Well that’s a good question…

3. 83% of institutional investors plan to increase their exposure to crypto this year

In a new survey of institutional investors, Coinbase found that 2024 was a major year of crypto growth amongst the group. Key findings included:

  • 85% increased allocations to digital assets in 2024.

  • 59% plan to allocate 5%+ of their assets under management (AUM) to cryptocurrencies in 2025

  • 73% currently hold one or more altcoins beyond BTC and ETH

For years people have shouted that “the institutions are coming” Well, they are here… and growing.

2. Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle, and what's next?

CoinMetrics’ MVRV ratio (market value vs. realized value) for Bitcoin sits at 1.9, down from its recent 2.65 peak – neither in bargain-basement territory (ratio ~1) nor overheated (>3.5). This suggests we’re somewhere in the mid-cycle zone. The good news? Speculative activity has cooled. This “mid-cycle” reset could set the stage for another growth cycle under a more supportive administration with real, structural catalysts.

1. Bo Hines for the win

Bo Hines, the low profile executive director of the president's council of advisers on digital assets, spoke at Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit yesterday and came out swinging. For starters, he said the stablecoin legislation via GENIUS Act is expected to be finalized in the coming months, emphasizing that it would turbo-charge the U.S. dollar. He then doubled down on the council’s “respect” for bitcoin and it’s uniqueness, and explained why the group wants to acquire more. See clip below.