Just How Much Money Will Flow Into Bitcoin ETFs if Approved?

Bitcoin ETF mania is fully upon us. And no matter what Elizabeth Warren and Jamie Dimon are trying to do to stop it, an approval is beginning to look more and more likely. So much so that according to one Bloomberg analysis, the chance of an approval by January 10 is 90%.

So as we lead up to that fateful date, a question arises: How much money will actually inflow into bitcoin ETFs? And how much will it impact the price?

Let’s take a look at some predictions…

Galaxy Digital
ETF inflow prediction: $79.5 billion in first 3 years
Key quote: “We could see monthly returns gradually ramping down from +6.2% in the first month to +3.7% by the last month of the first year, resulting in an estimated +74% increase in BTC in the first year of an ETF approval (using 9/30/23 BTC price $26,920 as the starting point).” Read more »

Glassnode
ETF inflow prediction: $70.5 billion
Key quote: “Based on these assumptions, we estimate approximately $60.6 billion could flow into Bitcoin from the combined stock and bond ETFs, and about $9.9 billion from the gold market, totalling around $70.5 billion in potential new capital influx.” Read more »

Bitwise
ETF inflow prediction: $72 billion
Key quote: “Within five years, we estimate spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market, or $72 billion in AUM.” “We expect… [bitcoin to trade] above $80,000 and setting a new all-time high.” Read more »

Apollo
ETF inflow prediction: $65 billion
Key quote: “We could see $65 billion in inflow to Bitcoin ETFs in the coming cycle. Applying a 50x multiplier effect leads to an increased market cap of US$3.25 trillion in which case we would see Bitcoin trading at US$200,000 per coin. We realise this is a bold estimate with a lot of uncertainty.” Read more »

Our Thoughts

Consensus seems to be somewhere in the $75 billion range.

But let’s be clear here… nobody knows anything. 

Most of these prognosticators are just basing their number on comparisons to what happened when gold ETFs were introduced.

But trying to forecast the amount of money that will inflow into spot bitcoin ETFs based on historical norms can be a distraction. There is a financial transformation taking place. Bitcoin is a growth story where, unlike gold, no more of the asset can be created. 

So what is the true number? Hell if we know. But if we know bitcoin, there is a high chance that it will surprise everyone.