Welcome To Bitcoin’s 5th Epoch

Bitcoin’s 4th halving is upon on us, expected to happen on April 20th.

While this event is being blasted on every front page in crypto media, here are the only two narratives investors really need to know:

Short-Term

The halving could very well be a sell-the-news event. Remember ETF launch day? It was perhaps the most bullish event of the decade and BTC prices fell ~15% before recovering.

But, now, just thinking from a pure contrarian trading mindset, we wouldn’t be surprised if the opposite actually occurs here. Why? Because everyone is warning of a sell-the-news event, not just us. And bitcoin – dipping below $60k earlier today – is already losing some momentum.

Ultimately, don’t take our word for it. Don’t take anyone’s. As always, anything can happen when it comes to these “landmark” events. If you don’t really care either way because you're just a long-term investor, keep reading…

Long-term

There’s hopium everywhere you look surrounding the long-term implications of another bitcoin halving. But most long-term analysis leans heavily on just cycle theory.

It goes something like this: Bitcoin’s price tends to move in four-year cycles. This week’s halving event marks the start of another one, also known as Bitcoin’s 5th epoch.

If we look back to each halving epoch, bitcoin’s price has appreciated substantially in the year following the event.

The major differences between past halvings and today’s are a Wall Street era of bitcoin with ETF-induced demand… inflation-riddled economies across the world… a few ongoing wars… higher-for-longer interest rates… more judges ruling in favor of crypto… and a full-fledged U.S. debt crisis.

No reason to be bullish on fiscally sound currencies like bitcoin at the moment, right?

The Big Picture

Without troubling anyone with more number-go-up scenarios, all that matters is this: The halving mechanism is what separates bitcoin from every other form of fiat money – the inability to be “printed” or artificially created.

While the current fiat money supply inflates each and every day, bitcoin’s inflation rate is about to drop from ~1.8% to ~.9%, as it trends down to eventually 0%.

This is the power of bitcoin and why the halving is so important.

In today’s world, there’s really not a whole lot to be extremely stoked about. What are we but two millennials, voicing for our generation.

$1 million-plus starter homes… $20 cocktails… a bullshit siloed work remote society fixated on TikTok trends… a stock market riding on AI technology that, quite honestly, sucks… and a whole lot more inflation and lying politicians claiming that “everything is ok” to deal with in the coming years.

But unlike government entities, we can’t just magically increase our wages when we want. So please excuse this rant, but paying our “fair share” in taxes this week hasn’t left us in a great mood.

But, y’know, at least we have bitcoin.